The new geopolitical scene of the Middle East
11 Sep 2010 18:33 GMT
Analysis of the possible pregnancy of a new geopolitical status in the troubled Middle East scenario.
Recent democratic elections in five years have been marked by accusations of electoral fraud unambiguous (Iran and Afghanistan), international isolation of the democratically elected governments (Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Gaza Strip), pseudo-elections to try to sugarcoat " soft hand strikes "(Honduras) and acceptance by the international community turned-political systems in mere autocratic governments (Belarus, Georgia and Russia), which suggests that we would be on the eve of the entry into the geopolitical scenario of the new wave global destabilization caused by the decline of the global economy, the loss of democratic credibility of countless governments of Third World countries, the U.S. decline as a world power and the emergence of new actors in the global geopolitical context such as China, Russia, India and Brazil.
TURKEY: The outlawed by the Constitutional Court of Turkey's pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), has broken the climate of rapprochement brought about by Ankara to end the Kurdish conflict and could trigger a new spiral of violence, that coupled with a worsening economic crisis scenarios asisitríamos to high inflation, rampant unemployment and runaway debt and the radicalization and the rise of the TKP (Turkish Communist Party).
Moreover, without the protective umbrella of the EU (by postponing "indefinitely" its inclusion as a full member of law) and the history of the controversial Ergenekon case, in which numerous people, including army officers and members, are charged and being tried for masterminding several murders and targeted attacks in order to instigate a coup against the AKP government) is expected to star in a new military coup "virtual" or "postmodern," which would end the mandate of the Prime Minister Erdogan, (recalling the 'soft coup' of 1997, when the generals seized power from the government of President Necmettin Erbakanpor, who led an Islamist coalition) and later emerging fractured political system will produce a series of unstable government coalitions in parliament Turkish.
MIDDLE EAST: Obama will be finally forced to participate personally in the process of Israeli-Palestinian peace in order to lay the groundwork for the creation of a future Palestinian state (prior recognition of Israel by the Palestinians) and that could result in the signing of a Treaty of Peace between the new Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the new President of the Palestinian Authority (which would be representative of the new government of unity which inevitably ensue following approximation of Hamas and Fatah).
The agreement would have political blessings of Egypt, Russia, Syria and Iran and as economic partners needed in the reconstruction of Gaza to Saudi Arabia, USA, EU, Japan, and UAE (with an approximate cost of $ 2,000 million) and should be comprehensive and binding on all countries in the Middle East geopolitical area and to achieve the establishment of a new "status quo" in the area ("Pax obamaniana"), once resolved the nuclear dispute with Iran and the U.S. restoration Diplomatic relations between both countries.
IRAN: Iran has acquired a regional dimension of power thanks to the erratic policies of the United States in Iraq, (the result of government policy myopia Busch obsessed with the Axis of Evil) to elimirar ideological rivals, the radical Sunni Taliban and subisiguiente Saddam Hussein to power vacuum in the area. and reaffirmed their inalienable right to the nuclearization.
The new strategy of the Obama Administration's Middle East seek to deepen the lines of negotiation "multilateral" (including the opening of a direct line to the Tehran regime and the establishment of an Arab ally in front, to isolate the hawks militarists, both Tehran and Tel Aviv), and was also supported by the new sanctions imposed by the UN to Iran with the aim of achieving real weakening of the Iranian economy and the possible revival of the "Green Tide" and supplemented with measures of Pentagon hawks to please the Jewish lobby, not being disposable preventive attack Iran before completing the process of obtaining nuclear weapons, (failure to reach a diplomatic settlement soon), because for Mossad, Iran and would be in the "threshold" pump and for the CIA and the IAEA the Iranian regime hide advanced aspects of its plan to build a nuclear warhead within a year.
Finally be achieved if the resolution of the U.S. nuclear dispute with the Iranian regime, Iran would assume the role of "policeman of the Gulf" that Americans trusted the shah of Persia, (increase of cooperation with the U.S. spend on security in Iraq and Afghanistan), but the United States will be forced to have two key players in the new status quo that will emerge after the current global economic crisis: Russia and China would attend the enthronement of the "Geopolitics peer" based on US-Russia troika -China.
EGYPT: A possible resolution of the nuclear dispute with Iran, however raises the problem of the relevance of the strategic options of the Group of Arab States located in the U.S. orbit, Thus, Egypt would have renounced the nuclear option and handed over control Middle East strategic space to Israeli aircraft in exchange for an annual grant of one billion dollars. On balance against public opinion has been authorized to Egypt and Jordan to undertake year-end production for civilian use in nuclear U.S. control, which have accumulated a technology gap of fifty years with respect to its neighbor Israel that would be offset by increased U.S. economic aid to reach $ 2,000 million annually.
Moreover, the scarcity of agricultural commodities for food (wheat, corn, rice, sorghum and millet) and the increase bestial of these products in world markets that had the tip of iceberg in 2007 and will presumably "in crescendo "over the next decade to lead to a global food crisis in the form of exorbitant cost and scarcity of basic foods and come in the Egyptian case compounded by their economic suicide by promoting excessive growth of macrourbes and mega tourist and therefore reduction in agricultural acreage.
This could lead to violent social unrest and a possible coup (reminiscing Nasser (1956) and subsequent narrowing of Russian-Egyptian relations to Egypt become the continental aircraft carrier from Russia, which together with the extension of its area of influence other Arab countries surrounding Israel (Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Jordan), might end up brewing ed the seeds of a new pan-Islamic movement that could end up re-release in the next decade, the Six Day War.
If taken to the military conflict and a new Israeli military victory, we would see the annexation of the Gaza Strip, and South Lebanon and the Sinai, Israel remained barricaded in a protective shield completed with the completion of the West Bank Wall (which include approximately 10% of West Bank territory, including East Jerusalem) and the control of the Golan Heights, Israel with U.S. and counting their nuclear deterrent as the only remaining allies and the Palestinian people sentenced to the Diaspora and international political ostracism.